He feels pretty strongly that you can't prove that god doesn't exist. As he put it "not that I believe for certain that He does exist, but there is a greater than zero probability that He exists." I took issue with the statement "there is a greater than zero probability that He exists." I told him that line makes it sound like he's saying "there is around a 10% chance god exists" but in reality he means something more like "there is a less than a 10^1,000,000,000,000 chance god exists."
As our discussion continued I suggested the following:
Based on no evidence let's say the chances that god exists are 1 in 500,000,000. Pretty generous odds I would say. Now what are the odds you will win the Powerball on any given week? 1 in 146,107,962. I may buy a ticket because the investment (for lack of a better word) seems worthwhile. (It isn't.)
But, once I have the ticket in hand I won't start planning my retirement. The odds are way too low to make any kind of assumptions about the future.If the odds of winning the lotto are too low to plan your life around them why would you plan your life around god if the chances are equally dismal?
Follow up question:
What do you think the chances are that god exists?
25 comments:
If G-d exists then He has to exist. Your question is like asking what're the odds Universal Gravitation exists. If Universal Gravitation exists it is a matter of necessity not probability.
I understand your friend's general position. He is basically saying that since there might be a God and he might be pissed if I go against the torah, I'll take the cautious route and follow the torah.
actually, i just had a situation this morning were this idea arose. My family is dealing with a particularly difficult situation. I very rarely put on tefillin or daven during the week (i go on shabbas to see friends). However, this morning, I put on tefillin and said shema. my thinking was that it can't hurt to try. now, i don't think this thinking would get me to be totally frum in my actions, but for small stuff it can work.
The chance that God exists may be very large or small, but it goes along with someone's aversion for risk. do you take the conservative approach and follow OJ because of that 1% approach or do you say that 1% is statistically insignificant. So the percentage is irrelevant, it is how your personally interpret the percentage that matters.
There is definitely a God. Thankfully, he is not in human form. Because I would do everything I can to kick the !@#$ out of him.
Yonah,
You're just still pissed off about the whale. Get over it!
To G-d there's a 100% chance He exists. No wonder G-d is so religious. He also believes in us. He has faith.
"What do you think the chances are that god exists?"
Which god?
What are the chances that Lubab No More exists?
"If the odds of winning the lotto are too low to plan your life around them why would you plan your life around god if the chances are equally dismal?"
Not that I'm sympathetic to this approach, but allow me to say that if you're betting it all - i.e. your life (and afterlife) then you might as well play it safe. Unlike the lottery, you can't choose not to play. You've already bought a ticket so you might as well pick some numbers. If the price is the same, then you might as well go for the high payoff too.
Lubab,
I would have to agree with RP. People that buy lotto tickets know the odds, and yet, they are willing spend money. Call this faith or stupidity. In any case, people are willing to take that chance.
The same thing could be said for God.
"What do you think the chances are that god exists?"
Which god?
Let me remind all that whether God exists or not is only part of the issue. The better question is:
1. What is the Chance that God ever existed?
2. If he once existed, what is the chance that he exists now?
3. If he exists now, what is the chance he is One?
4. If he exists, and is one, what is the chance that he is consciously aware of us?
5. If he is aware of us, what is the chance that he actively cares about what we do?
6. If he cares about what we do, what is the chance that he came down at a mountain and gave us a set of books, and a set of oral laws?
7. If he exists and gave us all these rules, what is the chance that the subsequent prophets came along and legitimately modified these rules?
Only if all of these are correct then and only then is orthodox Judaism a valid way of life.
Winning the lottery is only the beggining.
For me it is not a question of whether or not God exists, but what is God? I believe that God is the organizing principle of the universe, since there clearly is one. And I also believe that God resides in the love and connection between people and also between humans and the earth and its creatures. All else is the individual interpretations and myths created through the ages by the various religions, the distinctions between them having become rigid, dogmatic and destructive to the entire world. Thinking in terms of statistical chances of God completely misses the point of God, religion, and spirituality.
"2. If he once existed, what is the chance that he exists now?"
Einstein could answer that with his theory of Relativity anyway what could make G-d die? Is he a man with high cholesterol?
Let's assume that I want to play it safe by assuming that there is a single God who created the universe. What then? That single bare assumption doesn't get me anywhere. Many contradictory things have been said about this fellow, God.
As anonymous and badrabbi have suggested, that assumption doesn't even help me select which religion I should practice. Is practicing a religion "just in case" acceptable to God? If I pick the wrong one, will God punish me? Should I try to practice them all just to be safe? Would God accept that kind of indecisiveness? There are too many unanswerable questions.
Here's my own wager. I'm going to live the best life that I know how based on the assumption that all religions are man-made. If I'm wrong, then an omniscient, merciful God will know that it was impossible for me to choose to believe in him or practice a particular religion in good faith based on reason alone. He'll cut me some slack.
If he's not merciful and he doesn't cut me slack, then I'm screwed anyway because there are thousands of religions to choose from. What are the odds that I pick exactly the right one?
I might as well live the best life I can while I have the chance.
"Rich Perkins",
the percentage is irrelevant, it is how your personally interpret the percentage that matters.
I agree that the actual percentage is irrelevant and what actually matters is what you do with your belief.
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Yonah,
If you haven't already you should read Auslander. He has a similar feeling.
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Anonymous,
Which god?
You're taking the discussion to the next logical point. Once you acknowledge that god may indeed exist then you have to figure out whose god, or gods, are correct. Or if anyone even has the right idea of what god is really about. "Does god exist?" is just the first of many, many questions you need to ask before committing yourself to Orthodox Judaism or any other religion.
Orthoprax,
if you're betting it all - i.e. your life (and afterlife) then you might as well play it safe. Unlike the lottery, you can't choose not to play.
OK, so let's say you have no choice but to play. So now you have a lotto ticket in hand, do you assume you will win and plan accordingly or, do you live your life as you always have and hope you'll win but do your own thing?
Is committing one's life to Torah and Halacha really playing it safe? I like the old saying "one in the hand is worth two in the bush." I know I have this life, I can live it to the fullest or, I can bet that the next life is even better and commit to Orthodox Judaism. Of course, that's assuming there is an afterlife (the Torah makes no mention of one).
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Beehive,
People that buy lotto tickets know the odds, and yet, they are willing spend money. Call this faith or stupidity.
Ah, but the cost of a lotto ticket is very small. Almost everyone can part with $1. And the payoff seems so great! But to live your entire life based on a pre-existing set of rules (that may or may not be right) on the chance that maybe you will hit the jackpot is a much bigger investment with incalculable odds.
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badrabbi,
Winning the lottery is only the beggining.
Exactly.
Jonathan Blake,
Here's my own wager. I'm going to live the best life that I know how based on the assumption that all religions are man-made... I might as well live the best life I can while I have the chance.
I'm with you all the way.
LNM,
"OK, so let's say you have no choice but to play. So now you have a lotto ticket in hand, do you assume you will win and plan accordingly or, do you live your life as you always have and hope you'll win but do your own thing?"
In Judaism, it's generally thought that "the way you live your life" is how you play to win. If you're not going to play seriously, then you might as well not play. But you also could have a lot more to lose than just a dollar if you don't win. Economically, it may not make much sense to buy a lottery ticket, but when the stakes are effectively infinite then your investment rate can go very high - even on a long shot.
I could give you a reverse scenario where the odds of you getting hit by lightning are extremely slim. Does that mean you won't care about standing under tall trees during a thunderstorm?
Economically, it may not make much sense to buy a lottery ticket, but when the stakes are effectively infinite then your investment rate can go very high - even on a long shot.
That's gambling, not investing. Based on the evidence we have on god, the slim chance that he exists is not enough for me to bet my life on him.
I could give you a reverse scenario where the odds of you getting hit by lightning are extremely slim. Does that mean you won't care about standing under tall trees during a thunderstorm?
The odds of getting hit by lighting in a thunderstorm is a reasonable enough possibility that you should take action to avoid it. (See: Lightning Safety) Further, standing under trees increases your chances of getting hit so I don't see how the analogy works in our discussion.
On the other hand, I like what you said about how in Judaism "'the way you live your life' is how you play to win." I agree with that statement to a degree. I just don't think Judaism has the "winning formula".
Several have posted about "playing it safe if there is a god".
Walter Kaufman in Critique of Religion and Philosophy attacks this kind of pascal's wager. Maybe if God exists, s/he especially despises people who are religious just to play it safe. Maybe he respects both the true believer and the true dissenter but not the guy with the statistics degree.
Just a thought
LNM
The analogy makes no sense whatsoever. First you make up a number as the "probability that G-d exists". Then you compare that to the chances of winning the Lotto. Then you say that none of the percentages actually matter! Even "Jewish" Philosopher could undo this one.
In order to talk about probability, we have to have an event that has not yet occurred. The probability that it will rain tomorrow is 50%. the probability that it rained yesterday is p=100% XOR p=0%. IOW, it either rained or it did not, and it cannot have rained and not rained as they are exclusive. Similarly, either G-d exists or does not. There is no "probability" to be had here.
The real question you want to ask is a legal one, not a mathematical one. Does the evidence that we have bear out that G-d exists and with what level of certainty (absolute certainty, reasonable doubt, preponderance of evidence ...)? To answer this, we go back to the Rashab's ma'amer on Haamus Elokus. There is an obvious difference between meat in a pot and a living person. In defining that difference, you have the entirety of theology (whether you say that it is only chemical and physical differences or whether you say that it implies a spiritual component). The rest is up to you, but it is not a probability problem.
LNM
The analogy makes no sense whatsoever. First you make up a number as the "probability that G-d exists". Then you compare that to the chances of winning the Lotto. Then you say that none of the percentages actually matter! Even "Jewish" Philosopher could undo this one.
In order to talk about probability, we have to have an event that has not yet occurred. The probability that it will rain tomorrow is 50%. the probability that it rained yesterday is p=100% XOR p=0%. IOW, it either rained or it did not, and it cannot have rained and not rained as they are exclusive. Similarly, either G-d exists or does not. There is no "probability" to be had here.
The real question you want to ask is a legal one, not a mathematical one. Does the evidence that we have bear out that G-d exists and with what level of certainty (absolute certainty, reasonable doubt, preponderance of evidence ...)? To answer this, we go back to the Rashab's ma'amer on Haamus Elokus. There is an obvious difference between meat in a pot and a living person. In defining that difference, you have the entirety of theology (whether you say that it is only chemical and physical differences or whether you say that it implies a spiritual component). The rest is up to you, but it is not a probability problem.
rebeljew,
First you make up a number as the "probability that G-d exists". Then you compare that to the chances of winning the Lotto. Then you say that none of the percentages actually matter! Even "Jewish" Philosopher could undo this one.
I'm not sure what post you read but it certainly doesn't sound like mine. You seem to have mistaken my hypotheticals for facts. Read the post again. My argument is that based on what we know for certain about god (nothing) we don't have a very good reason for committing our life to him. My entry is a response to those who say "you can't prove that god doesn't exist."
I believe there is a G-d.
LNM,
"That's gambling, not investing. Based on the evidence we have on god, the slim chance that he exists is not enough for me to bet my life on him."
Investing _is_ gambling. Generally though, it's just that the odds are better and the payoff is lower. If you're not convinced that theism-of-your-choice is a good investment then you won't invest, but the economics of the offer and what's potentially at stake are sound.
"The odds of getting hit by lighting in a thunderstorm is a reasonable enough possibility that you should take action to avoid it. (See: Lightning Safety)"
Says the odds are 1:280,000. Those are low odds and it's only your physical life at stake and you're willing to take action. Given one life (1/280,000), that means you'd act on a risk assessment score of only ~3.6x10^-6.
So now if you lower the odds some more, but now it is your infinite life at stake then to be mathematically consistent, one would still take measures to protect oneself - because now the risk assessment score is effectively infinite (infinite/500,000,000 = infinite).
Given the stupendous risk, even if you hold the most marginal belief in its efficacy, it would be economically sound to act on it.
In this case, it's not just a lottery ticket - it's also insurance. People buy insurance to protect themselves from extremely unlikely things all the time.
"Further, standing under trees increases your chances of getting hit so I don't see how the analogy works in our discussion."
Yes, I meant that you wouldn't care if you were standing under such a tree? - or would you take care not to be under that tree?
"On the other hand, I like what you said about how in Judaism "'the way you live your life' is how you play to win." I agree with that statement to a degree. I just don't think Judaism has the "winning formula"."
As far as Orthodoxy is concerned, if you play by the formula then winning is a "sure thing." It's just up to you to decide whether the game is crooked or not. And if its crooked, then it's not a matter of odds. That's why I'm not sympathetic to the whole concept of wagering religious beliefs.
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